There were three separate scenario sessions carried out for Greater Manchester, producing three scenarios. In this section, we compare the three scenarios. The results are presented over the next 6 pages. They look at how a CO2 emissions reduction of 90% nationally may be achieved in Greater Manchester by 2050 and what this may mean for 2025.
These scenarios were all produced using the Greenhouse Gas Regional Inventory Protocol’s approach to scenario formation. The sessions
were all interactive and sought a balance between the discursive and quantitative elements deemed most pertinent when forming an energy emissions scenario. The drivers considered included all of the ones considered within the storyline components of the Special Reports on Emission Scenarios (SRES) of the IPCC.
The scenarios for Greater Manchester were produced with 21 different stakeholders from
a variety of interest groups within and beyond
of Greater Manchester, reflecting a range of backgrounds. The scenarios reflect inputs from all
of the stakeholders as to how Greater Manchester may reduce CO2 emissions by 2050 by the equivalent of 90%, however they should not be deemed representative of any individuals view. Two out of the three scenarios achieved the desired 90% reduction in CO2 emissions; the remaining scenario achieved an 87% reduction. All of the scenarios reduced end user energy consumption by between 87% and 92%. Interestingly, the two scenarios that achieved a 90% reduction in CO2 emissions reduced end user energy consumption by a fairly similar 40-46%.
When considering the results, it should be noted that the sessions were run independently of each other. Furthermore, in the two scenarios that achieved a 90% reduction economic growth was running at
an average annual increase of at least 2.00-2.25%. Moreover, both the population of Greater Manchester and the amount of households increased in all
of the scenarios. The reasons described by the stakeholders for this decoupling of economic growth from CO2 emissions and energy consumption varied between the three scenarios.
It is also interesting to note that in most of the scenario sessions, the production of electricity from the National Grid became nearly carbon free. Where electricity was produced using fossil sources, this was usually combined with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). None of the scenarios had coal based electricity production without CCS. In all but one of the scenarios, electricity consumption sourced from the National Grid reduced, displaced largely by a greater uptake of on-site renewable technologies and Combined Heat and Power (CHP) units for electrical energy. In all of the scenarios, electricity consumption increased overall and there was similarity in the level of emissions reduction achieved in the domestic, services and road transport
sectors – usually in excess of 85-90%. The rest of transportation, industry reduced their emissions
by smaller amounts. The scenarios are helpful as they show a large degree of congruence between significantly different stakeholder groups. They also help to understand the urgent nature of mitigation, in the near-term, and the decisions that are necessary to deliver the emissions reductions to recognise the carbon cycle.